CWICR Risk Calculator Business Case Problem Statement Cost estimates have inherent uncertainty: - What contingency to apply? - What is the confidence range? - Which items have highest risk? - How to quantify uncertainty? Solution Risk-adjusted cost calculations using contingency analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and probability distributions based on CWICR cost data. Business Value - Informed decisions - Understand estimate uncertainty - Appropriate contingency - Data-driven risk allowance - Confidence intervals - P50, P80, P90 estimates - Risk prioritization - Focus on high-impact items Techβ¦