Second-Order Consequence Chains Do not stop at the intended first effect. Trace what happens next across actors, time, and feedback until the chain stops changing the decision. When to Use - Strategic, policy, incentive, or architecture choices with lasting coupling. - The obvious fix feels too easy or has known backfire patterns. - Success or scale would create new problems (load, gaming, debt). - Need to compare options by delayed effects, not only day-one benefit. When NOT to Use - Local reversible edit with no incentive or cross-component coupling—just ship and observe. - Full system stru…